The Meme Mirage: Why Online Buzz May Not Translate to Votes for Kamala Harris

As the 2024 election draws closer, Kamala Harris has become a focal point in the meme-driven world of online political discourse. It was a momentous event at a point of high tension when Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy, and some memefare was to be expected. But with her campaign gaining traction in internet culture, it’s tempting to equate this digital popularity with electoral success.

However, as someone who has navigated the complexities of viral political campaigns, from Marianne Williamson’s meteoric rise in the 2020 Democratic primary to an insurgent congressional campaign in Ohio, to broader political movements, I strongly caution against assuming that likes, views, and memes will convert into votes.

The Illusion of Online Popularity as Electoral Success

While it’s exciting to see Harris gaining traction through memes and viral content, history tells us that online popularity does not necessarily translate into real-world support. The fervor on social media platforms often fails to mirror the electorate’s behavior at the polls.

We’ve seen this disconnect play out in numerous campaigns, where a candidate’s digital presence vastly outweighed their actual voter turnout. The reality is that while memes can create a sense of momentum, they are not a reliable measure of political viability. In my opinion, the effect of internet momentum can mostly be harnessed in a primary environment where a candidate needs to stick out in a field of candidates going after the same voter base. In a general election, I would anticipate the effect to be minimal if measurable at all.

The Youth Vote: Engagement vs. Turnout

The engagement of Gen Z with memes and viral content is undeniable. This generation is adept at using digital platforms to express their views, but this engagement does not necessarily translate to voter turnout. Historically, the youth vote has been inconsistent and unpredictable, with many elections seeing minimal impact from this demographic. Despite the excitement and energy generated online, no election has been decisively influenced by the youth vote alone.

The digital enthusiasm for Harris may thus not materialize in significant numbers at the ballot box, and I wouldn’t make much at all of the energized activity of Gen Z online activity which could easily fade and move onto the next interesting thing in the months leading up to election day. In fact, I think strategists should consider the memepower of JD Vance, who quickly stole the spotlight in memefare from Kamala’s brat summer and coconut tree memes with feverish couch and cat lady memes. Similar to how Trump stole the memefare show in 2016, it seems the Trump campaign is poised to easily seize the meme attention once again, repeatedly capturing the online attention.

In addition, the Trump campaign categorically avoids being cringe when it comes to memes (or, some may argue, have mastered being post-cringe) – whereas the Harris campaign flirts with being plain cringe with how they lean into the memes and can easily slip into a zone of being un-cool.

Memes as a Fundraising Catalyst

One area where viral content undeniably shines is fundraising. The internet’s capacity to mobilize small-dollar donations through viral moments is unparalleled. During the Williamson campaign, we saw firsthand how memes and online buzz can translate into substantial financial support. We were able to outraise every Democratic candidate except Andrew Yang in Q3 of 2019, a testament to the power of digital culture in driving fundraising efforts. For Harris, leveraging this meme traction could be a strategic advantage, bolstering her campaign’s coffers as the election approaches.

Whether those dollars can be deployed meaningfully by the campaign to move the needle is another story – outspending Trump does not mean defeating him at the ballot box.

Media Coverage and Profile Elevation

Beyond fundraising, memes can elevate a candidate’s profile and secure valuable media coverage. The Marianne Williamson campaign experienced this effect, with meme culture propelling her into the national spotlight and even landing her on SNL, despite not being present at subsequent debates. Similarly, Donald Trump masterfully used memes to dominate media narratives, often at the expense of his competitors. However, this election cycle differs significantly. As it is not a primary, the dynamics of media coverage and public perception are different. Harris might not gain a significant edge from meme culture; in fact, it could potentially backfire. I don’t know many voters in key demographics that identify with brat summer – and again, Gen Z doesn’t vote, and Millennials are not going to decide this election.

Do the suburban wine moms who handed Trump key battleground states identify with the brat meme, especially enough for it to outweigh their other voting concerns such as fentanyl killing their kids, schools adopting controversial trans student policies, the border crisis, and inflation at the grocery store? I strongly doubt it. Will they post the brat memes to their stories though? Sure, maybe once or twice, and likely ironically.

The Risks of Meme Culture for Kamala Harris

For a candidate like Kamala Harris, who is part of a party that often prioritizes a polished and controlled image, the risks associated with meme culture are considerable. While Trump thrived in the chaotic, unfiltered realm of internet memes, Democrats often strive for a more refined image. The unpredictable nature of memes could inadvertently harm Harris’s reputation, making her appear less serious or diminishing her appeal to voters who value stability and professionalism. Furthermore, Democrats historically seek to maintain a “pure and perfect” image, and engaging too deeply with meme culture could tarnish this perception.

As the 2024 election approaches, it’s crucial to distinguish between online popularity and tangible electoral success. While memes and digital engagement can significantly boost fundraising and media presence, they are not a guaranteed pathway to victory, far from it. The comparison to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign is apt; despite strong online advocacy and high expectations, the campaign was ultimately blindsided by a lack of connection with broader voter concerns.

This time, fewer people may be surprised by the outcome, as the disconnect between the enthusiasm of elite Democrats and the realities faced by working people becomes more apparent. While I hope to be proven wrong, I remain skeptical that the current online fervor for Harris will translate into significant electoral gains.